A President on the run

What explains the constant absence of the Asif Zardari from Pakistan at this crucial time for the country? If there was a figurehead who the public admired, he would have been giving state of the nation addresses on television encouraging the public and melding their opinions in support of the difficult war that is currently going on within the country. However, Asif Zardari seems to be constantly on the run at the expense of taxpayer money. First it was a lengthy trip to the United States, Britain and France. Now off for conferences with Iran and Afghanistan. Can’t he defer those meetings and stay at home during these difficult times? Or is he on the run because he is afraid he may be targeted by someone in a revengeful act while this operation is going on? Needless to say, his constant absence casts strong doubts on his credibility to perform as a president for this country and further erodes his already shaky reputation.

Helplessness in Pakistani Society

How much power does the average Pakistani on the street vield? Almost none. Can he stand his ground against the powerful? no. Can he expect any kind of justice in his life? nopes. Pakistan is not an empowered society. Only the connected and powerful people have any say in how this country is run. You can have connections with either the government or any of the various mafia or the political parties and you are eligible to get a get-out-of-jail free card. Show up in a big car with a number plate denoting your party affiliation and/or public office (like MPA, MNA, some minister or the other) and you can violate all the laws, act like a pig on the city streets and get away scot free. Nobody will dare stand up to you lest they themselves end up getting the wrath of all that you will be presumed to have the power to do. 

So why IS our society like that? Well, for starters, the absence of justice and a complicated and corrupt justice system is one thing to blame. Supremacy of law has never been a part of the Pakistani culture. Law exists only so the powerful can bend it to demonstrate their powerfull-ness. The higher the public office you have, generally the more you behave with impunity. The courts are extremely complicated, overcrowded, and take too much time and money in order to give proper justice. The process eludes the masses. You dont feel that you will be able to get a just decision if you get caught up in anything. Therefore, you try to hide from it all and save yourself. And therefore you dont dare stand up for yourself because if you are wronged, it will be very difficult for you to get punishment for the wrongdoer. 

No wonder the Taliban were able to get an initial foothold in the Northern Areas. Their Nizam-e-Adl at least promised proper and equitable justice to those living in the region. It was harsh, but it was quick and accessible. And it did not bend to the rich or the powerful. I had a conversation in Sindh once with a person who hailed from FATA. I asked him if he liked living in the area as compared to FATA and what he thought about the tribal areas becoming a regular part of Pakistan. What he said was very true. In Pakistan, there was no fairness in terms of justice and equitable application of the law. Whereas in his tribal areas, he could appeal to his local jirga for anything even against a powerful chief and he was liable to get a just and fair trial. That is why he never wanted FATA to become a regular part of Pakistan. Sounds justifiable. I would not want to live in a country where I could not raise my voice against anyone powerful without fear of the repurcussions. But unfortunately, I do.

Aid for Pakistan

Zardari had just flown on a trip to the US in order to meet with his Afghan counterpart Karzai and forge a regional co-operation deal. No doubt most of the Pakistanis were embarrassed by his conduct there and his un-presidential demeanour which made most of us hang our heads in shame. What is remarkable however, is that the US seems to have grabbed on to yet another weak leader to support and prop up inside Pakistan in order to carry forward their regional objectives.

Musharraf is now gone, thanks to a vocal democratic movement that refused to side with him in-spite of the blatant US support for the dictator. But after he left, a fluke of politics landed Mr. Zardari in the presidential hot-seat — the most un-likely and ill-suited man for the job. A person who had almost no prior political experience and had been famous in Pakistan and the world over as Mr. 10% for his corrupt practices. For a time people were willing to give him a chance. They let him continue in his first 100 days, then second 100 days waiting for him to deliver the promises of Benazir’s campaign (who’s flag he claimed to uphold). Those promises were never fulfilled. Zardari seemed to have started revelling more and more in the limelight and those promises became increasingly un-important to him — something he could put off or just make another lame excuse about. Interestingly however, he miscalculated the post-Musharraf era “enlightenment” that had come to the masses since the last Pakistani democratic era. The people were more attuned to his delaying tactics and read through him. Impatience generally grew till it reached a boiling point over the issue of the restoration of Judges and culminated in a long march up to the capital, which was supported by all non-PPP political parties and the population in general. 

Zardari was literally brought to his knees while in office and lost face with the general population. TV stations, political commentators, columnists, other members of society who were willing to give him more time and space to deliver earlier on, openly started with their criticism of his government. And rightly so. Now the overwhelming opinion of the public had turned against his being in power. A poll by the American Republican Institute (and various other polls) showed just 16% of the population in support of Zardari — a poll for which they were asked to pack up their bags and leave from Pakistan. Even key members of the PPP also resigned from his government.

Currently, Zardari’s approval ratings remain so low that he has to resort to parading around his son Bilawal so he can help him maintain support of some Bhutto loyalists. Bilawal is brought out in every key event and every key visit. Even in an international visit to the US, Bilawal was taken along in no capacity to represent Zardari’s connection to the Bhutto clan — further emphasizing the weakness of his presidency. Zardari, like Musharraf, now also feels an urgent need to pander to all US demands so they can help prop him up. And the US has taken up his issue. 

Just like they made a major blunder with supporting Musharraf against the wishes of the people of Pakistan, the US seems to be headed down the exact same path yet again. Obama was clever enough to realize Zardari’s lame status in the country and the weakness of his government, however, Richard Holbrooke, the US special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, has found in him a trustable partner who can get some healthy gains for his mission in the region. Somebody who would always lean on the US throughout his term in order to prop him up, and somebody unfortunately in a powerful position in Pakistan who can get the Americans their objectives. 

Where will this alliance get us? It can only be a matter of learned speculation. The public does not support Zardari very much. This is clear as crystal. He is a guy who has a reputation for his corrupt practices and cronyism. Somebody who has just been able to come to power due to a sweeping National Re-conciliation Ordinance issued by a dying dictator in order to gain him some post-term security in the Pakistani political jungle. What we the Pakistanis can expect now is more of the same. The country will be flooded with billions of dollars in aid. However most of it will likely be ending up in politicians pockets (kudos to a party in power with a history of corruption). A fraction of this aid will go towards photo-op schemes in order to show the world that something is being done. However the spend-efficiency of all the aid coming to Pakistan is expected to be extremely low. For every dollar of aid given, 50 cents can be expected to go down an un-known black-hole unless stringent controls are maintained on its spending. Zardari will also keep kow-towing the US line un-mindful of the Pakistani public viewpoint, in order to help keep his presidency alive. Meanwhile, public resentment against his government will keep simmering. In consequence, anti-American sentiment in Pakistan would possibly grow further and increase for the next four years that Zardari remains in power. 

For the world powers trying to help Pakistan come out of the mess it is in, there is still time to rethink their strategy. Is the current course the right one to follow?

So what am I going to use this blog for?

Everything. I find lots of things going around on which I want to comment on and which I want a broader audience to reach. Lets hope this blog will help me in this regard. Topics I may cover would probably range from city to country level and even about the world. This blog will be an outlet for my activist, opinionated, know-it-all side. I hope it ends up benefiting whatever audience that I end up attracting. So cheers.